By Simon Cook, data analyst
The government knows the welfare system is under pressure. So does the opposition. Voters can feel it too in the form of higher taxes, stretched public services and a growing sense that the state is doing too much, for too many, with too little scrutiny.
Personal Independence Payment (PIP), a disability benefit designed to support those with long-term conditions, is one of the biggest drivers of that pressure. It’s also one of the fastest-growing lines in the public spending ledger.
Earlier this week, we launched a new interactive benefits dashboard revealing the scale and speed of that growth. The numbers are jaw-dropping. PIP claims have more than doubled since 2019, now reaching one in ten people across England and Wales, with many areas far exceeding that. In Blaenau Gwent, for example, more than one in five residents now receive PIP.
The dashboard was released just ahead of the Commons vote on the government’s welfare reform bill. The aim was to give MPs the data they needed to understand and confront the challenge facing them by backing the government’s reforms to simply slow down the rise in PIP expenditure.
But when the vote came, Parliament blinked.
While the welfare bill passed its second reading, it did so only after the toughest measures were stripped out. Plans to tighten PIP eligibility were dropped, and any serious reform was kicked into the long grass. A review has been promised, with changes delayed until late 2026 at the earliest.
In short, the numbers say we have a problem. The political class says we’ll deal with it… later.
The PIP system now supports almost four million people. The cost is expected to reach £35 billion by the end of the decade, up from £16 billion in 2019-20. Meanwhile, total welfare spending could hit £324 billion by 2030.
This isn’t sustainable. But even modest attempts to slow the growth, not even cut spending, just slow the rate of increase have been met with fierce opposition. Many Labour MPs, including Richard Burgon, see it as a moral issue: “The government shouldn’t be balancing the books on the backs of disabled people”, he said. For others, it’s a red line. Welfare is sacred. Touch it, and you’re heartless.
But what’s actually driving the rise?
Some blame long NHS waiting lists. Others point to Covid, long-term conditions, or the general health of the population. There may be truth in that. But it doesn’t fully explain what our dashboard reveals.
Since 2019, there’s been a three-fold increase in PIP claims for Tourette’s (now 1,661 claimants). A seven-fold increase for sleep apnoea (up to 3,001). And a four-fold increase for eczema. And it doesn’t end there as 18 people claimed PIP for factitious disorder, where symptoms are faked or induced by the individual.
The fundamental questions to ask when it comes to these benefits is, are we really becoming that much sicker, that much faster? Or has it become easier, and more lucrative, to qualify for PIP?
Many PIP assessments are now done remotely, with as little as two to four per cent of disability assessments happening in person. Fewer in-person checks, less scrutiny, and rising appeal success rates suggest a system that’s being outpaced and, in some cases, outmaneuvered. The case for online or phone assessments may have been clear during the pandemic but why have they become norm rather than the exception now we’re past that period?
This doesn’t mean most claimants are dishonest. But the incentives are clear. If a benefit is easier to claim and more generous than ever before, more people will claim it. That’s not scandalous, it's just economics. The real scandal is the refusal of politicians to engage with this reality.
The government had a chance to act this week. Instead, it bottled it. Labour had an opportunity to lead an honest conversation about the limits of the state. Instead, many of its MPs chose to grandstand and gesture, ignoring the numbers and fiscal reality entirely.
But the data remains undeniable and deeply troubling. This can’t be ignored much longer. If we carry on like this, we risk not only a financial crisis but also the erosion of public trust in the very idea of welfare.
The question isn’t whether reform is needed. It’s whether any government will find the courage to deliver it before the system buckles under its own weight.